Europe's Grain Harvest May Fall 4% on Yield Drop, Farm-Weather Unit Says

Grain Prices in Markets

The European Union grain harvest is estimated to fall 4 percent this year to 284.9 million metric tons as yields decline for all cereals except corn, the bloc’s farm-weather monitoring unit said.

Barley output may slide about 13 percent to 53.6 million tons, the EU’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit, or MARS, said in a report dated Oct. 12 and published on its website today. The wheat harvest is estimated at 136.8 million tons, the unit said, without saying how that compares with 2009.

Wheat production fell an estimated 3.3 percent in France, 5.5 percent in Germany and 4.2 percent in Poland, MARS said. This year’s wheat harvest is likely to be better than in 2009 for the U.K., Italy, Romania and Spain, it said.

For barley, all main producers face a decrease in production, other than Spain, Romania and Bulgaria, MARS said.

EU corn production is estimated to decline 1.4 percent to 57.1 million tons. Better yields are expected in Italy, Romania, Hungary and Bulgaria, the agricultural weather unit said, while in Germany yields are forecast to slide 13 percent to 8.5 tons a hectare (2.47 acres).

Soft-wheat yields are estimated to drop 3.1 percent to 5.57 tons a hectare, while durum productivity probably slipped 1.3 percent to 3.06 tons a hectare, MARS said. Corn yields probably climbed 2.9 percent to 7.06 tons a hectare.

Potato yields across the 27-nation EU are estimated at 27.50 tons a hectare, a decline of 8.4 percent, and farmers in the bloc will harvest an estimated average 65.3 tons of sugar beets a hectare, down 8.3 percent.

Grain Futures - Yield forecasts (tons per hectare):
5-year %change %change
2010e 2009 average yr-on-yr 5yr avg
Cereals 5.00 5.08 4.88 -1.4 2.5
Wheat 5.29 5.46 5.24 -3.1 0.9
Soft wheat 5.57 5.74 5.54 -3.1 0.5
Durum 3.06 3.10 2.99 -1.3 2.3
Barley 4.34 4.43 4.24 -2.1 2.4
Spring barley 3.73 3.82 3.68 -2.3 1.4
Winter barley 5.22 5.31 5.09 -1.7 2.5
Grain maize 7.06 6.86 6.70 2.9 5.4
Other cereals 3.52 3.59 3.36 -1.8 2.3

Potato 27.50 30.00 28.20 -8.4 -2.5
Sugar beet 65.30 71.20 64.20 -8.3 1.7
Sunflower 1.90 1.80 1.70 7.8 11.8
Rapeseed 2.90 3.30 3.10 -10.6 -4.2

Source: bloomberg.com
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Grain Futures - Commodity Grain

Due to the competition of importers and exporters in Commodity Grain, Wheat fell for for two weeks in Grain Markets. And the prices of Grain Futures in Markets will be affected slightly.
For July delivery, Wheat fell 10 cents, or 2.1 percent, to $4.5775 a bushel.

The demand for Commodity Grain will be down due to the unexpected change in climate; this has affected the crop. There were heavy rains, and with sudden change in temperature; the degree was high. As a result, the supply of Commodity Grain was shortage in Markets.

According to Bloomberg, "Wheat is the fourth-biggest U.S. crop, valued at $10.6 billion in 2009, behind corn, soybeans and hay, government data show."

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Commodity Grain Prices in Markets!

Recently, the prices of Commodity Grain in Markets have been fluctuating due to the climate. The temperature has been varying from cold into hot; and the crops will be under influence of this change. How can we predict the prices of Grain Futures in Markets? Some traders and investors are worried about this issue; trying to learn more and get information about future contracts in order to avoid the risks and losses is a good step towards success. If traders and investors want to learn more about Commodity Grain, they can visit Futures Wiki or Futures Investments for more information about trading Commodities. It will be a good first step to learn more before Trading Grain in Markets. Don't jump into Grain Trading without knowledge or lacking of information; this will be risky to do.
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Soybean, Wheat, and Corn Continued to Go Up As Dollar Fell

According to Bloom-berg, as The Dollar fell and weakened in the market, Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat began to rally; and this could be a the appeal of U.S. crops to traders and investors.

In May, on the CBOT delivery of Soybeans rose 1% to $9.6125 a bushel, and in Singapore time they were at $9.585 at 2:46 p.m. In July, delivery of Corn continued to advance 1.1% to $3.6125 a bushel, while wheat gained 1% to $4.8425 a bushel.

The Dollar Index began to fall 1.3% after European governments offered Greece a rescue package worth 45 billion euros ($61 billion).

By July, Wheat prices may fall 8.6% from the closing price of $4.7925 a bushel on April 9, based on the average estimate of 15 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Wheat farmers in the U.S. don’t plant the grain. This is because of world inventories last year of 165.23 million tons; and production of 618.11 million tons in the year ending May 31 would still exceed estimated demand by 21%.

Thomas Mielke, executive director of trade magazine Crude Oil World, said that as global output might exceed demand by 20 million tons in 2009-2010, Soybean prices may fall “significantly below current levels”.

Also, in Rotterdam, Soybeans Prices may fall to about $350 a ton in the second half of the 2009-2010 marketing year. They averaged $428 in the six months beginning Oct. 1.

Learn more about Futures Wiki to get information about Future contracts of Grain Futures Markets.

Source: Bloom-berg.com
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Grain Futures: Markets & Advices

U.S. Economy

According to ADP Employer Services, in March there is a loss of 23,000 U.s private sector jobs; and in June 2011 Euro-dollars closed up .055 at 98.445 in Currencies Markets.
According to the U.S. Commerce Department, in February the factory orders were up .6%.
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, last week its index of mortgage applications was up 1.3%. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage moved up from 5.01% to 5.04%.
Grains and Cotton

The USDA expects growers in 2010-2011 to plant:

There are 88.8 million acres of corn, up 3% from a year ago.
There are 78.1 million acres of soybeans, up slightly from a year ago.
There are 53.8 million acres of wheat, down 9% from a year ago.
There are 13.9 million acres of spring wheat (not durum), up 5% from a year ago.
There are 10.5 million acres of cotton, up 15% from a year ago.
Those things above are the speculation and forecast about Future Grains.
After today’s report from USDA, Grains continued to close lower; and in July Wheat began to fall 21.25 cents to a new contract low of $4.64. In May, Cotton began to close up 1.01 at 80.55. Learn more about Grain Futures...

The USDA also said that on March 1st, there were:

7.69 billion bushels of corn stocks, up 11% from a year ago.
1.27 billion bushels of soybean stocks, down 2% from a year ago.
1.35 billion bushels of wheat stocks, up 30% from a year ago.
Future Contracts from Futures Wiki....Learn more about information and advices...
Source: Daily-Futures.com
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Grain Futures: Future Markets & Prices

It will be both necessary and difficult for new traders to understand the fundamentals of Commodity Grain Futures in Markets. There are three divisions that traders should notice when arriving at the Data and Statistics:
• Economic Research Service (ERS),
• Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) and
• National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS)
There are over forty reports broken down by different commodities and the world, regions, and countries that produce and consume them. And there are figures for commodity grain imports, exports, production, supply, usage, yield, and more.
Another great tool to take advantage of is the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports. This can be found by going to the USDA Office of the Chief Economist’s site.
A nice attribute of this report is that all of the commodity grain markets driving fundamental statistics are listed. This also has nice forecasts for the coming crop year. The WASDE reports are used by a large percentage of individuals who trade commodity grain markets. To get more information, just visit Commodity Grain Report.
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Wheat Rises as U.S. Growers Store Grain, Awaiting Price Rally

According to Bloomberg, "Wheat rose for the first time this week on speculation that U.S. growers are limiting sales on speculation that a stalled dollar rally will revive demand for the Grain Futures."

Due to the high demand in Grain, global wheat supplies are rising faster and the price has slumped 4.8 percent this year. The dollar fell as much as 0.9 percent today against an index of six major currencies.

Wheat futures for May delivery climbed 11.25 cents, or 2.2 percent, to $5.1575 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. The most-active contract has risen 2.8 percent in the past year.

Wheat is the fourth-biggest U.S. crop, valued at $10.6 billion in 2009, behind Corn, soybeans and hay, government data show. The nation is the world’s largest wheat exporter.
Source: Bloomberg
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